It seems that John Paxton's second wife is Mary Blair, who was the niece of Martha Blair, according to the research of Arthur B. Broddus.
Mr. Broddus has written an interesting hypothesis with a lot of details, arguments, and sources listed, precisely about this Mary Blair vs Martha Blair situation.
Starting on page 46, on the link, then on page 49 he concludes that John Paxton married first Martha Blair, and then after Martha died, he married Mary Blair, Martha's niece. Mr Broddus lists many sources in his research.
The first one being the book from 1912 "Lyle Family" by Oscar K. Lyle. On page 327, number 32, are notes about SAMUEL BLAIR, including: "The children of Samuel Blair were: Esther, see 33; Nancy, see 34, Daniel, see 44; Samuel, see 119; James, see 120; Mary see 122; John, see 123; Martha, see 124; William, see 141."
and then on page 331, "124 MARTHA BLAIR, ex 32. Went to Virginia and m. Capt. John Paxton."
and then also on page 331, (to indicate that both Mary and her niece were living in the same place)
"120 JAMES BLAIR, ex 32, m _______. His daughter Mary went to Virginia with her aunt Martha Blair and is the Mary Blair mentioned as equal heir in the will of John Houston in Rockbridge Co., Va., of date April 24th 1748"
https://archive.org/details/lylefamilyancest00lyle/page/331/mode/1up?ref=ol&view=theater
He points out that both Martha and her niece Mary were living in the same place.
It seems Mary's death would be 12 Aug 1821, as it is second wife Mary who is mentioned in John's will.
Mr. Broddus also speculates that a much older gravestone near Johns' might be Martha's, who might have died in the 1750s.
Note: he also points out the gap between the first three children:
Capt. John Paxton born 1743
Isabelle born 1746,
Capt. William born 1751,
and then the next children:
Joseph, is born 1763
Elizabeth, (between 1760-65)
James 1762
Mary 1764
Hannah 1775
In the 1810 census, for Rockbridge, John and Mary's daughter Hannah's husband James Caruthers is likely living with Hannah and Mary. Hannah's age is estimated as 40-45, and Mary's is estimated as over 65. Also likely with the 1820 census.
Here is a book on the Paxtons which shows John's wife as Mary, daughter of Rev Robert Blair https://archive.org/details/paxtonstheirorig00paxt/page/n65/mode/2up/search/mary+blair
And a quote from this book: "...they were married in Lancaster Co. PA, about 1742 Mary was the daughter of Rev. Robert Blair"
Born 1726 County Antrim, Ireland. [4][5]
Died 12 Aug 1821. Lexington City, Virginia, USA. [6][7]
Buried Timber Ridge, Rockbridge County, Virginia, USA. [8]
Note: Buried Timber Ridge Presbyterian Church.
MARTHA BLAIR AND MARY BLAIR - WIVES OF JOHN PAXTON An Hypothesis by Arthur B. Broddus, BSGR Mem. # 491 (starting page 49)
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This is the book on the Paxtons that says "Mary" Blair's father is Robert Blair (and not Samuel)
This is a very interesting article from 1997 that gives a lot of details and arguments precisely about this Mary vs Martha problem. Starting on page 46,
then on page 49 he concludes with:
"In conclusion, the evidence to date supports the hypothesis that John Paxton married Martha Blair and then Mary Blair, Martha's niece. This I submit should be the genealogical record until conflicting evidence, if any, is found"
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5802c4d9414fb5e45ce4dc44/t/5998b4f9e58c62168cf18b43/1503180036888/Blair+Family+Magazine-Fall%2C+1997.pdf
What do you think about this research that concluded that he had two wives, first wife Martha Blair, and then when she died, he married Martha's niece, Mary Blair?
If you have time, please take a look at this source and let me know what you think.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5802c4d9414fb5e45ce4dc44/t/5998b4f9e58c62168cf18b43/1503180036888/Blair+Family+Magazine-Fall%2C+1997.pdf
Regards, Tricia
edited by Tricia Appell