One interesting variable affecting these comparisons is the effect of the inclusion/exclusion of X chromosome on the statistics. I have a good DNA match with 4th cousin on lines of descent that alternate through female and male generations, so it is predicted to make a 25% contribution to one of my X chromosomes, and (I think) at least a 12.5% contribution to hers. My 53-cM match to this cousin includes an X-chromosome segment. The size of the match is on the high end for a 4th cousin, but if we didn't happen to share the X-chromosome inheritance, the match (one segment on another chromosome) is only 26 cM (more typical for a 4th cousin).
Blaine Bettinger's data input form doesn't ask whether the X chromosome is included in the comparative data, and it doesn't ask whether the pair of people would be expected to have inherited X chromosome material from their MRCA. Addition of that information could significantly refine these predictions of percentages shared.
ADDED: Regarding that 4th cousin, I can compare her data with data for four people on my line of descent from the MRCA (three of us are 4th cousins with her and one is a 4th cousin once removed). All four of us have an X-chromosome match with her, but only two of us (both full 4th cousins) also match on another chromosome. In this family, at least, the common inheritance of the X chromosome is a major factor in the statistics of matching.