How is an AncestryDNA 5th cousin prediction higher confidence than using Y-STRs?

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Ken wrote "I would suggest that AncestryDNA prediction of a 5th cousin plus the well-documented tree, exceeds the level of confidence established by yDNA and ySTR. I also suggest it changes nothing about the degree of certainty established by Traditional means."

Please explain why you believe that?

Sincerely, Peter

 

in The Tree House by Peter Roberts G2G6 Pilot (704k points)

1 Answer

+5 votes

If you test 2 adoptees with yDNA and another 2 adoptees with auDNA and both pairs match using their respective tests, and without using any genealogical information,

The yDNA match could be anywhere between a parent and well beyond a 9th cousin.
The auDNA match is a narrower prediction. An AncestryDNA prediction of a 5th cousin in the range of 5th cousin to 8th, has a better chance of being an actual 5th cousin than what can be predicted by yDNA. 

If I had to place a bet, I would bet that the auDNA prediction will be closer and more accurate to the actual relationship than someone by using yDNA to make a similar estimate.

Edit:

I would also like to point out that the definition of "Confirmed with DNA" is

"The "Confirmed with DNA" indicator means that traditional genealogy has been further confirmed with DNA testing."

It doesn't make sense to me that yDNA "further confirms" but auDNA does not.

 

by Ken Sargent G2G6 Mach 6 (62.1k points)
edited by Ken Sargent
Thank you Ken.  I was not considering adoption. Adoptees rarely have well documented ancestral trees.
I think you make a good general point, but the quality of the yDNA result is a huge factor.  Many people receive a haplogroup of R-M269, which matches much of Europe and many Americans, making it COMPLETELY useless for anything (except rejections).  Others test so much further they have a 'terminal' SNP, and in some cases can identify an ancestor less than 200 years back.  That's obviously VERY useful.

And the confidence level in a  genetic distance from a 12 marker STR test is VERY different from a 111 marker test.
I believe sufficient autosomal DNA matching does further confirm the traditional genealogy.  If the description in the DNA features does not say it further confirms then I believe an edit is needed.
Hello Rob,  When I think of using Y-DNA it is usually haplotype (Y-STR) matching on a sufficient number of markers.  I hope most people understand that you can't just rely on the sharing of common haplogroups.  Big Y type testing is still too expensive for most DNA testers.

Peter, I can't tell if you are getting the point.

1. The reason for the Adoptee example was to be sure we compare just the DNA tests completely independent of Traditional Genealogy.  According to Wikitree Adoptees without the traditional genealogy need not apply.  Wikitree requires Traditional Genealogy.

2. The DNA Services are an authoritative source as to what is sufficient.

3. But when AncestryDNA, 23andMe, or FTDNA report there is sufficient evidence to support a 4th cousin prediction, we can check the box that says "that traditional genealogy, [that has already been confirmed], has been further confirmed with DNA testing.[by 23andme, FTDNA, or AncestryDNA]"

The question is why do we indicate further confirm yDNA and not confirm auDNA?

Hello Ken,

Since the Confirmed with DNA indicator means that traditional genealogy has been further confirmed with DNA testing, then why use an example completely independent of traditional genealogy?

I don't believe AncestryDNA or Family Finder are sufficient on their own for triangulation because you can't be sure your matches are matching each other on the same segment.  In Common With and Circles are not the same as autosomal DNA triangulation.

Sincerely, Peter
Why do you insist on triangulation?  This one-to-one requirement is only a ySTR requirement. It can't determine distance without it.

Every DNA Service and every user use a Wikitree like confirmed with Traditional Genealogy as CONFIRMED.  If the DNA Services predicts a 5th cousin and it is consistent with a Confirmed tree, we have success.  

No place other than here at wikitree requires known trees to triangulated because when your confidence level is by definition already at 90%, a DNA test consistent with the prediction makes it close to 100%.

You are saying that an auDNA match that a DNA Service prediction also predicts, means absolutely nothing until a third well-documented test tells you the same thing.

You are saying that 10 auDNA tests that further supports the tree is correct means nothing unless you can see that some sort of triangulation occurred.

The only reason for triangulation is to create a yDNA one-to-one like segment.  You are trying to prove where a segment came from, but this is not required nor is it necessary using auDNA.

Please proved an example outside of Wikitree that requires 3 well-documented relationships in order to use the one confirmed relationship.

The only time triangulation is used is when one of the DNA Testers is a match but you don't know where or how they are a match.

Confirmed with DNA only deals with known relationships. it never deals with unknown relationships.
Peter, I used the adoptee example because the question you posted only dealt with yDNA and auDNA predictions.  In order to be sure there were no outside influences, I made sure that you know we were specifically excluding all external influences.

I stand by that assessment, that an auDNA will result in a more accurate prediction.
Hello Ken,

The reason triangulation is necessary is because each person has two copies of each chromosome and labs can't tell, and you can't usually be sure (with out triangulation) which part of your ancestry contributed to that segment.  

Please read https://dna-explained.com/category/triangulation/

If you believe Roberta Estes is mistaken about the need for triangulation then I hope you will make a comment on her blog and explain why triangulation is not necessary.

Thanks and sincerely, Peter

Peter,

We are talking apples and oranges, and this has always been the disagreement I have had with the way WikiTree has approached DNA.  

For the moment, let me agree with everything you wrote except that you are wrong in that I believe “Roberta Estes is mistaken.”  Both Roberta and I have been involved with autosomal DNA from the beginning. I understand the terms she uses and the context of the articles she writes.

Roberta writes:

Unless you are dealing with very close known relatives, like the Ferverda first cousins, there is no other way to prove a genetic connection to a specific ancestor.”

And

“One of the reasons genealogists always suggest testing older family members and as many cousins as possible is because triangulation becomes much easier with known cousins from particular lines to point the way to the common ancestor.”

I am sure we read these quotes differently.

I think some context is necessary....

One of the most frequently asked questions involves 3 matches that are “In Common With (ICW) each other in the DNA Relative lists. The top  question is, “Do we share a common ancestor?” The answer is always, “You don’t know if you share a common ancestor unless you use triangulation.” 

This answer is always used in the context of relationships that are unknown. I totally agree with her on the importance of mapping segments and fully support the method and reasons she writes in that article.  Do you?

Roberta documents the 3 steps used to prepare for Triangulation and then on what to do with Triangulation results.

Step 1. DNA Matching – The tester’s DNA matches that of other testers at the company where they tested, or at Gedmatch.

Step 2. Ancestor Matching - Identify a common ancestor or ancestral line based on their previous work, aka, [Traditional] genealogy and family trees.

Step 3. Segment Matching - Utilizing chromosome browsers or downloaded match lists including segment information to identify actual DNA segments that match other testers.

Just so that there is no confusion, She uses spreadsheets, and this is done before any triangulation. In summary, find all the segments that are shared between every DNA tester in which the tree connects them. This includes 5th Cousins and above.

Here is another look at the steps....

1. The DNA Matching worksheet will contain a list of all DNA Matches from all sources.

2. The Ancestor Matching worksheet will be an extension of the DNA Matching worksheet. These identify single ancestors as far up the tree as possible, but when two common ancestors, you identify the Ancestral Line by identifying the children of the 2 Most Recent Common Ancestors. In both these cases, Traditional Genealogy is used. It's obvious don't do this with those DNA Relatives that do not have connected trees.

This specific ancestor identified DOES NOT have to be the Most Common Ancestor 

Roberta suggests using Hints from Ancestry.com to help find these connections or a Surname search on FTDNA or Ancestry.com.  

3. The Segment Matching worksheet is used to identify the actual DNA segments shared between two DNA testers who have known relationships supported by trees. Each segment is mapped to a single ancestor.A single ancestor may have more than one segment.

There is no upper limit as to the collection of these DNA segments.  A 5th cousin match is the same as a 2nd cousin match.

Also, We collect all this information before the Triangulation stepNothing has been stored in these worksheets involving triangulation at this time. 

Roberta writes: Triangulation – The process used to combine all three of the above steps in order to assign specific segments of the tester’s DNA to specific ancestors

Once all segments have been assigned to an ancestor for those DNA testers have known trees, The triangulation process assigns DNA segments from DNA Testers without trees using the segment information of known DNA Relatives which are already stored away in the spreadsheet.

Roberta uses triangulation to help those without trees find connections by using the segment information that is mapped to known trees.

For example, the segments that I share with a known 3rd cousin 1x removed are mapped and used as the source.  Then I compare all my DNA Relatives with those segments to see if any of the segments triangulate. If they do, I can at least say that those unknown DNA Relatives share a common ancestor along a particular family line of mine, and that of the particular family line of my known cousin. This helps me and them narrow down where to search for documentation that connects us.

As Roberta wrote: Triangulation is used "to point the way to the common ancestor.” but it does not necessary identify the common ancestor.

Lazarus does something very similar and automatically.  An example of this is my deceased maternal grandmother’s DNA Relatives who Roberta would have identified by hand, are listed at LL895346.

There is no doubt that these people in her list are related to me via my maternal grandmother and not my maternal grandfather. 

I prefer to spend my time working on making new connections, rather than “further confirming what I have already confirmed.”

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