Beyond_CC7.jpg

Beyond CC7

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Surnames/tags: CC7 100_circles
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Addition of CC7 to members' profiles has triggered many interrogations, showing that this raw number has to be explained more. The 100 Circles page is providing general explanations and examples of circles distributions over the whole Single Tree.

This page is focusing on this particular question : what happens (just) beyond CC7? To illustrate, we have chosen two profiles who have listed themselves on Tommy Buch's page Connection Count at 7 degrees, and who have similar CC7 values, just large enough to deserve the 1,000 Connections Badge.

Léa Haupaix has earned the 1,000 Connections Badge through hard work during the July 2022 Connect-a-Thon, where she added 189 profiles, most of them within her 7 degrees. She joined WikiTree in January 2021, and her branch has been connected to the Single Tree in May 2021. But her few connection paths to the bulk of WikiTree are still a bit long.

The following plot shows the distribution of her circles up to C23, in July 2021 and in July 2022. The growth of C5 to C7 is showing the work achieved by Léa, who is mostly alone to work on her branch. The poor population of circles between C10 and C20 shows how difficult it is to connect her branch to the bulk of the Single Tree. The growth after C20 is mostly due to the general activity of WikiTree.

Beyond C23, the distribution is similar to most other profiles. The following plot shows the distribution of her 70 first circles, skipping the "long tail" extending up to C106.

Let's now compare with Andréa Boudreau, of whom CC7 is also just above 1,000, similar to Léa's figures. The following plot compares the distribution of their circles up to C8 ... just one degree beyond CC7.

The circles distribution up to C7 are similar, but at C8 happens a drastic divergence. While Léa's C8 has dropped under 100, Andréa's is up over 1,400 ... the beginning of an exponential growth. The following plot is showing Andréa's circles up to C23, peaking over 2.5 million ... while Léa's C23 is just the start of the growth ...

Andréa has been on WikiTree since 2017, longer than Léa, and had more contributions. But this does not explain such huge differences in the figures. Simply, Andréa's branch is close to the Canadian bulk of WikiTree, whereas Léa has to struggle to bring her French branch closer.

Bottom line of this comparison is that if CC7 is a good indicator of the work achieved in local branches, but in the above cases it gives a poor indication of how well local branches are connected to the bulk of WikiTree.

One could think that profiles with much larger CC7 (over 10,000) are not likely to show further dip in the circles distribution similar to Léa's. We had conjectured that circles always keep growing at similar rates passed the 10k threshold, reaching the peak about 10 circles after the first circle at 10k. As an illustration, the following plot shows the circles of Patty (Luker) LaPlante, with a current CC7 of 5633 (19 Jul 2022), and a peak circle at C17.

But actually, even with a CC7 over 10k, a further dip in the distribution can occur. The following plot (logarithmic scale) represents the circles of Piet Steyn, listed in the 10,000 Connections page. The dip occurs after a steep growth up to 100k at C10.

This distribution is fairly typical for our South African members. Displaying the same data as an ordinary bar graph, the large CC7 (or CC10) is visible as a "mole hill" in circles close to the subject. Then there is a pronounced valley before the climb to the imposing central massive.





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How do you generate the counts beyond CC7 that are plotted here?
posted by Stephen Adey
There is a "magic" query granted to the "100 Circles" project, courtesy of Aleš . Not public because heavy on the server. If you have specific profiles distribution you would like to see, please ask.
posted by Bernard Vatant