Degrees of Certainty of Correctness

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Degrees of Certainty of Correctness

An assertion can range between 100% certainty of being correct to 100% certainty of being incorrect, with different terms commonly used to indicate where on the spectrum a particular assertion lies.

• Absolutely certain that it is correct; no possibility at all that the assertion is incorrect
• Correct beyond a reasonable doubt - The standard for conviction in a US criminal case; slighlty less that no possibility that the assertion is incorrect; phrase is rarely used in genealogy
• Highly likely; highly probable - This is probably about the level of certainty that would allow an assertion would be deemed "proven" by genealogical standards, per Helen Leary's article: https://bcgcertification.org/skillbuilding-evidence-revisited-dna-poe-and-gps/
• Likely; probable
• Reasonably likely
• More likely correct than not - This phrase signifies slightly more than 50% chance that the assertion is correct
• Less likely than not - This phrase signifies slightly less than 50% chance that the assertion is correct
• Not reasonably likely
• Unlikely; improbable
• Highly unlikely; highly improbable; not reasonably plausible - This is probably about the level of certainty that would allow an assertion would be deemed "proven" false by genealogical standards, per Helen Leary's article: https://bcgcertification.org/skillbuilding-evidence-revisited-dna-poe-and-gps/
• Incorrect beyond a reasonable doubt - The standard for conviction in a US criminal case; slighlty less that no possibility that the assertion is correct; phrase is rarely used in genealogy
• Absolutely certain that it is not correct; no possibility at all that the assertion is correct

Degrees of Certainty Required for Different WT Fields

WT has four guidelines that address what level of certainty is required for different profile files:

• Uncertain - This guideline provides general guidelines and references specific guidelines for certain fields. [The specific guidelines presumably override the general guidelines where the conflict.]
  • Standard for entering information in a field - "Uncertain" should not be used (i.e., information should not be entered at all) if it is disproven and should generally not be used (i.e., the information should generally not be entered at all) if it is unlikely. [Per "Degrees of Certainty of Correctness" above, information should probably be deemed "disproven" for genealogy purposes if, after considering the totality of the evidence (including its reliability and relevance), it is highly unlikely/highly improbable/not reasonably plausible that the information is correct.]
  • Confident vs Uncertain - If, per above, the information may be entered in the field, the information should be marked uncertain if you are not "confident" of its correctness. [The degree of certainty required for "Confident" probably starts with highly likely/highly probable. That means that info may be entered but should be marked Uncertain if it falls in between highly unlikely/highly improbable/not reasonably plausible and highly likely/highly probable.]
  • Names - States that they may be speculative but not guesses.
  • Parents - States that they may be speculative, even highly speculative, but not guesses. References Uncertain Parents.
  • Dates - References Estimated Dates. [For dates that are not estimated and for which there is some evidence to support a specific date, the general rules for entering info and marking uncertain v confident would apply.]
  • Locations - References the Uncertain Locations.
• Uncertain Parents - States that connecting uncertain parents is never required. It's a decision made by the editors of the profile. Gives different guidance for pre-1700 and project-managed profiles and for other profiles:
  • For pre-1700 and project-managed profiles, the guideline only states that "parents are generally only connected if they appear in reliable sources, but are sometimes connected temporarily." [This suggests there must be "some" reliable evidence supporting the parentage, but since there is otherwise no guidance, the guidelines from Uncertain presumably apply - i.e., information should not be entered that is disproven and should generally not be entered if it is unlikely; parents may be speculative, even highly speculative, but not a guess. It is unclear if the reference to "speculative" and "highly speculative" were meant to apply to parents for pre-1700 and project-managed profiles, but there is no language anywhere that overrides it. It is also unclear if the references to "speculative" and "highly speculative" mean that parents can be entered can be entered even if they are "unlikely", so long as they are not disproven (which probably means shown by the evidence to be highly unlkely/highly improbable/not reasonably plausible) or a guess.]
  • For other profiles, the guideline states that parentage supported by an "uncertain" or "highly uncertain" theory is OK, so long as the theory is better than any competing theory of parentage and the parentage is not disproven. [Seems to mean there must be some evidence to support the parentage (albeit not necessarily reliable evidence) and the parentage must not be disproven (which probably means shown by the evidence to be highly unlkely/highly improbable/not reasonably plausible).]
• Estimated Dates - This guideline encourages estimating dates of events based on any reasonable evidence rather than leaving blank, checking the About/Uncertain box, and explaining the basis for the estimate in the profile.
• Uncertain Locations - This guideline states that "almost any location name is better than no location at all" and that "even a continent is better than nothing" unless it is "less than uncertain" under the general Uncertain guideline, but that "more specific locations are always preferred, even if they are uncertain." ["less than uncertain" presumably refers to the guidance in would mean the location should not be entered if it is disproven and should generally not be entered if it is unlikely.]